Not the GOAT (Yet)

At this point, I think we can safely say Tadej Pogačar has entered the conversation as one of the greats. Today he completed yet another long solo breakaway to win his second consecutive world championship.

There are plenty of people who have already crowned him the GOAT, but that is crazy. Merckx racked up an astounding 525 wins, exactly five times as many as Pogačar's 105. This recency bias is pretty normal, though.

In baseball, players from more recent times are often celebrated as better than the old timers even if the numbers don't support it. I have heard baseball pundits say, "Ruth played against farmers and plumbers." Sure, the game was different in Ruth's time, which makes direct comparisons difficult, but he absolutely dominated his era and literally changed the way the game was played. In 1920, when Ruth hit 54 home runs, he was the first player in MLB history to reach THIRTY home runs. The next best player that year was George Sisler with only 19 home runs.

Many say Ruth couldn't hit in this era. Maybe. To be truthful, few players can hit in this era. Pitching has never been better. However, if you insist on making this comparison, you have to acknowledge that Ruth rolled out of bed, often hung over (or still drunk) from the night before, and still dominated. Because he could. Why live like a monk when you can eat and drink whatever you want, stay out all night, yet still be great?

In this era the expectations would require Ruth to be in the weight room, eating sensibly and making curfew. And I have little doubt given these modern requirements of the game, he would compete and perhaps even be a dominant force in this era.

Which brings us to the ridiculous notion that Merckx could not compete in this era. Similar views as with Ruth have been voiced: "Eddy raced against farmers and plumbers." Again, give him modern training and nutrition practices, and a carbon fiber super bike, and Eddy would be just fine. Those 525 wins didn't happen by accident.

Even though Pogačar just turned 27, he will never come close to matching Merckx's win total. I think even reaching 200 wins is a stretch. Because today you MUST live like a monk to compete with all the other monks. Eventually this will become too much for him, and I believe he will likely retire quite young.

When he does retire, and the dust settles, maybe we can return to this GOAT talk. For now I will simply appreciate Pogačar, and marvel at the beauty and audaciousness of his long attacks. Like many things in life, like my own individual cycling mortality, I will enjoy it now while it lasts.

Later.